So, to Second Life. A place I visit more frequently than my dentist, but less often than I do my GP. (And I haven’t been ill in ages).
I think I’m behind the curve on this, but I’m only just catching up with the violent US media swing against this most hyped of all possible worlds. Time Magazine for example, once part of the first wave of Second Life boosters, has placed SL in its high profile list of Five Sites to Avoid.
On top of this, recent months have seen the closing down of the in-world branch of American Apparel and an increasing number of pranks (referred to as “griefing”) perpetrated against brands by the “terrorist” likes of the “Second Life Liberation Army.”
It’s within this landscape that the Yankee Group has announced and then delayed its controversial report “Wither Second Life?” which has seen immediate rebuttal from Second Life’s developers, Linden Labs.
The crux of the note sent out in advance of the report is that since its peak in October 2006, usage of SL and – critically – the average time spent there by each user, has been dropping off dramatically (down to an alleged average of 12 minutes a month).
The report suggests – rather simplistically I think – that this is down to the “tethered” PC client based nature of access to the Grid, rather than allowing for more freedom access either through the browser (which is coming in the form of MoveableLife) or through mobile clients (which seems to me like madness right now…).
Linden’s angry response is that simple “Second Grade Math” shows the actual average monthly time to stand at 23.6 hours per user. Unsurprisingly, the final report has been withdrawn. But clearly, battle lines around the use of Second Life by brands and corporates are being quite strongly drawn.
So what is the future for Second Life and other virtual worlds?
Well, I’m thinking that Second Life will ultimately suffer through having been the pioneer and the first to extend the offer of being all things to all people. This of course spans (on the surface…) incompatible groups ranging from furry sex fans, to real-world retailers and corporates looking to sex up their virtual conferencing action.
It’s useful to look at a phenomenon lateral to virtual worlds. In the social networking arena, where again the focus has been on global platforms aiming to be all things to everyone – there is currently a clear trend towards ‘niching.’ Rather than participating in the large public networks, users with real needs and expectations are starting to gravitate towards smaller, more focused communities of interest.
At the top end of the scale you can see networks developing in the US around “macro niches” such as faith, cultural identity or social status. Check, for example, MiGente (Latino culture), AsianAvenue, BlackPlanet or Faithbase.com. For social status of course, the key player is ASmallWorld (to which I’m sure my invite is lost in the e-post…).
At the bottom end, explore the ‘micro-networks’ enabled by vendor Ning (co-founded by Marc Andreesen). Or for UK-specific examples there are sites such as www.amateurillustrator.com/ or the invitation only network just set-up by London members’ club the Hospital.
Likewise, look at the recently announced plans by Harper Collins to develop a social networking community solely for aspiring authors. These niche networks provide greater value both to members (interaction focused around common needs, interests and directed content) and to advertisers looking to target messaging more effectively.
The brands and corporates playing in Second Life however are putting themselves in front of a mass audience. In a world that offers everything it’s unsurprising that, as Forbes Magazine puts it, “avatars seem more interested in having sex and hatching pranks than spending time warming up to real-world brands.”
But in the existing niche virtual worlds, for example the enduring Habbo Hotel, There.com (for teenagers) or Club Penguin (for kids), there are no conflicts of interest and no ‘griefing.’ Conversely, there are also sex specific virtual worlds such as Red Light Center where your virtual hedonism won’t be conducted in front of confused IBM delegates there for a virtual seminar. There are also virtual world/social network developments in the niche gaming space – just look at Sony’s “Home” for the PS3 or “A World of My Own” (with a serious 20% stake taken by Virgin Games).
So, when Gartner – pushing an infinitely less pessimistic point of view than the Yankee Group – predict that, within five years, 80% of internet users will have a virtual avatar it’s in these more niche worlds that I think we’ll find them playing. This is also a situation helped by a number of companies opening up (much as Ning has done for Social Networks) easy development of bespoke virtual environments.
Of course, this doesn’t mean that brands who’ve invested in Second Life to this date have lost out. They’ve gained vital early experience and many still investing – Vodafone’s “Inside Out” initiative stands out to me here – are learning lessons that will be easily applied in the niche environments to come. Smart organisations such as Omnicom are also preparing themselves for this “avatar age” regardless of whether it occurs on the Linden Grid or not.
So, Second Life – I can’t imagine I’ll be back in the future, nor will many of the brands leaving it. But this doesn’t mean we won’t all be seen wiser and with our specific needs – whether these are interest based on tied perhaps to real world neighbourhoods – more capably catered for in new virtual worlds by 2012.
