“Microtrends,” Mark Penn – a review.

Sometime around 460BC, the philosopher Democritus arrived at the first theory of atoms: that even the most solid matter can be broken down to microscopic, distinct and constant particles.    

This is how Mark Penn urges us to look at the socio-cultural landscape of today. It takes just 1% of people, asserts Penn, to make a dedicated anti-mainstream choice and this can become a movement that could change the world.  

Penn’s work in identifying and targeting the ’soccer mom’ niche while working as a pollster for the Clinton Campaign in 1996, led the New York Times to call him “The guru of small things.” He’s now doing the same pollster job for Hillary Clinton and advising Gordon Brown.   

Hillary and Gordon should find themselves charmed, entertained and engaged by Penn. “Microtrends” – 75 brief essays on emerging social niches in America – has a way with a well-turned phrase, and is full of good crunchy statistics designed to make the reader think about the current and future states of society.   

Who knew that 1% of Californians aged between 16-22 saw themselves as military snipers within 10 years? That knitting is one of the fastest growing activities among the MySpace generation, or that the tiny African island of São Tomé hosts twice as many pages of internet pornography as it has inhabitants?    

There is a telling moment, though, in the chapter on “Impressionable Elites,” in which Penn takes the view that once Americans begin to earn over $100,000, they start to care more about the personalities of political candidates than they do about their strategy and policies. This level of real involvement in issues is left to those in lower social strata. When the elites are talking about Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat, the rest of the world is living it.   

The Impressionable Elites, Penn believes, are the most easily spun by the kind of charm and effortless sense of knowledge in which he specialises. And this book, with its cover quotes from both Bill Clinton and Bill Gates, is clearly targeted at them. I worry that I’ve become one because the further into the book I read, and the more  conversational gems I file away for later use, the more I feel complicit in the book’s success.     

Much of this quotable value comes not from statistics themselves, but from Penn’s take on the likely causes and effects of these niche attitudes. But despite Penn’s dedication to deep quantitative research (the book has 38 pages of references) there often seems to be something deeply subjective in the theories that sit around his trends.  

For example, in his discussion of “XXX Men,” heavy users of online pornography, Penn casts pornography as the decisive force in the adoption of the VHS format over Betamax. The same thing is happening again, he claims, in the war between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, with the adult industry swinging it for the latter. This is at best anecdotal, but pure gold for the conversations of the chattering classes.  

It makes for engaging reading, but sits uneasily with a view of truth as a result of ever more detailed and objective polling. 

For example, a rise in the number of left-handed people is interesting. And it may possibly be down to more liberal attitudes in parents and the resulting individuality of their children. It seems improbable, however, that this rise in lefties might herald the coming of more great military leaders like the left-handed Charlemagne, Napoleon and Norman Schwarzkopf (Penn’s examples, not mine).   

There is also a sense in these conclusions of Penn working his day-job as cheerleader for the Clinton nomination. This sense then plays out in a number of visions of an America where, in a cliché that the Clinton campaign hasn’t shied away from, “Children are the future.”   

This vision of an obviously conservative America is also felt in the handful of European trends addressed. The large number of UK couples ‘Living Apart Together’ is to Penn an unconventional approach to marriage and family values. He then suggests problems for the property market due to “a literal doubling in the amount of housing stock required.”   

Or take Italy – 82% of 18-30 year old men are “Mammonis” (mummy’s boys), still living with their mothers. These are pointed out as a potential cause of depression or recession “as China takes over Italy’s manufacturing jobs.”   

Microtrends is deeply US-centric with a whiff of neo-con xenophobia. It’s possibly too glib and agenda-driven in some of its conclusions. More interestingly, it is a self-illustrating, and quite possibly self-serving example of how the microscopically-focused research in which Penn specialises can be used to identify and then engage with audiences. It’s also aimed squarely, and cynically, at the chattering classes. Should you read it? That depends on whether or not you see yourself as one of those chatterers. 

If you are in that niche (and you probably know who you are) the odds are – so good is Penn at his job and so engaging is his spin – that you’ll find a lot to enjoy and a lot to recycle over dinner or in the pub.  You’ll also be able to nod sagely should the Prime Minister start talking of the ‘triumph of the Starbucks economy over the Ford economy.” 

Hobo signs for techno tribes?

So there I am, thinking about the possibilities of QR codes for a guerrilla sticker campaign round London when I actually see one in the wild… 

There, on a phone box near Russell Square, just round the corner from the Perseverance, is a code accompanied by the number 0107 010 6443 01 (arranged vertically in those blocks).   

The code itself, when decoded, is the same number represented as 0107010644301.  

I have no idea what this refers to. I’ve been unable to turn up anything on Google or anything related to phone numbers. Possibly you’re now reading this page because you’re similarly looking, or perhaps you’re Googling your own work to see if it’s been picked up on. Let me know.  

Anyway, so why am I thinking about QR codes? Well, at the end of August a billboard advertising the DVD release of zombie movie “28 Weeks Later” appeared in London’s Shoreditch.  

Unusually for the genre, there was no strap-line, no star-billing and no blown-up stills or digitally enhanced cleavage. There was simply a large and striking pattern of black and white dots with a “28 Weeks Later” URL beneath it.  

For those in the know, of whom many of us will have been eagerly awaiting such a poster, it was clearly a QR code.  

Standing for “Quick Response,” QR codes originated in Japan and have gained some traction in the US and Switzerland. Point a camera phone at the code and – with the correct software installed (just go to kaywa.com) – you’re taken to anything from text you can save instantly to your phone to a link to a mobile site. They’re “real world hyperlinks.” 

The billboard, which thanks to Crackunit I now know was designed by the admirably geeky Gia Milinovich (“I’ve been dorking out about QR codes for a little while now”), is one of a handful of UK sightings to date.  

This, though, was the first example of their use in the UK for marketing. Non-marketing examples in Japan and elsewhere include usage on food packaging and on business cards, and these will inevitably arrive here soon (though of course, not till the software comes as standard on phones other than the N95).  

Elsewhere in the UK, EMAP placed QR codes in metal magazine Kerrang last year and a recent remix of the Pet Shop Boys’ anti-ID card anthem “Integral” presents a video laced with codes, all linking to articles providing context on the ID card debate.  

What all these executions have in common is exclusivity. Shoreditch is still an enclave of perceived post-Nathan Barley techno-cool, metal fans will always embrace an outsider status and concealing a layer of hidden information in a video makes an instant club out of those who get it as well as ramming home the privacy point.

It’s to gain this niche exclusive appeal that QR codes have a limited marketing life. Exclusivity breeds buzz. “Want to spread the virus and be part of the latest craze?” asks the “28 Weeks Later” site, relating the viral theme of the movie to the marketing device.  

So, back to where I came in, leaving the pub after lunch…   

I was thinking there may be a good little window for some guerrilla marketing here – particularly for music marketing and particularly in urban centres – before QR codes become as common place as barcodes or the idea is worn out.  

Now, I haven’t thought about the concept of hobo signs/hobo symbols since an afternoon with Matt Jones years ago, but then they cropped up in an episode of the truly excellent Mad Men. And it occurs to me that this is what QR codes could briefly be – hobo signs for techno tribes, your young urban hipper-than-thou audience. You can hide any message you like in QR, and hide it in plain sight.

So, if you’re trying to reach a young techno-literate audience in this initial under-the-radar period, work fast. Get a sheaf of blank stickers, generate some codes, and get them to your street teams now.

Wither Second Life Indeed…

So, to Second Life. A place I visit more frequently than my dentist, but less often than I do my GP. (And I haven’t been ill in ages).   

I think I’m behind the curve on this, but I’m only just catching up with the violent US media swing against this most hyped of all possible worlds. Time Magazine for example, once part of the first wave of Second Life boosters, has placed SL in its high profile list of Five Sites to Avoid.   

On top of this, recent months have seen the closing down of the in-world branch of American Apparel and an increasing number of pranks (referred to as “griefing”) perpetrated against brands by the “terrorist” likes of the “Second Life Liberation Army.” 

It’s within this landscape that the Yankee Group has announced and then delayed its controversial report “Wither Second Life?” which has seen immediate rebuttal from Second Life’s developers, Linden Labs.    

The crux of the note sent out in advance of the report is that since its peak in October 2006, usage of SL and – critically – the average time spent there by each user, has been dropping off dramatically (down to an alleged average of 12 minutes a month).   

The report suggests – rather simplistically I think – that this is down to the “tethered” PC client based nature of access to the Grid, rather than allowing for more freedom access either through the browser (which is coming in the form of MoveableLife) or through mobile clients (which seems to me like madness right now…).   

Linden’s angry response is that simple “Second Grade Math” shows the actual average monthly time to stand at 23.6 hours per user. Unsurprisingly, the final report has been withdrawn. But clearly, battle lines around the use of Second Life by brands and corporates are being quite strongly drawn.   

So what is the future for Second Life and other virtual worlds?   

Well, I’m thinking that Second Life will ultimately suffer through having been the pioneer and the first to extend the offer of being all things to all people. This of course spans (on the surface…) incompatible groups ranging from furry sex fans, to real-world retailers and corporates looking to sex up their virtual conferencing action.   

It’s useful to look at a phenomenon lateral to virtual worlds. In the social networking arena, where again the focus has been on global platforms aiming to be all things to everyone – there is currently a clear trend towards ‘niching.’ Rather than participating in the large public networks, users with real needs and expectations are starting to gravitate towards smaller, more focused communities of interest.   

At the top end of the scale you can see networks developing in the US around “macro niches” such as faith, cultural identity or social status. Check, for example, MiGente (Latino culture), AsianAvenue, BlackPlanet or Faithbase.com. For social status of course, the key player is ASmallWorld (to which I’m sure my invite is lost in the e-post…).   

At the bottom end, explore the ‘micro-networks’ enabled by vendor Ning (co-founded by Marc Andreesen). Or for UK-specific examples there are sites such as www.amateurillustrator.com/ or the invitation only network just set-up by London members’ club the Hospital. 

Likewise, look at the recently announced plans by Harper Collins to develop a social networking community solely for aspiring authors. These niche networks provide greater value both to members (interaction focused around common needs, interests and directed content) and to advertisers looking to target messaging more effectively.   

The brands and corporates playing in Second Life however are putting themselves in front of a mass audience. In a world that offers everything it’s unsurprising that, as Forbes Magazine puts it, “avatars seem more interested in having sex and hatching pranks than spending time warming up to real-world brands.” 

But in the existing niche virtual worlds, for example the enduring Habbo Hotel, There.com (for teenagers) or Club Penguin (for kids), there are no conflicts of interest and no ‘griefing.’ Conversely, there are also sex specific virtual worlds such as Red Light Center where your virtual hedonism won’t be conducted in front of confused IBM delegates there for a virtual seminar. There are also virtual world/social network developments in the niche gaming space – just look at Sony’s “Home” for the PS3 or “A World of My Own” (with a serious 20% stake taken by Virgin Games).

So, when Gartner – pushing an infinitely less pessimistic point of view than the Yankee Group – predict that, within five years, 80% of internet users will have a virtual avatar it’s in these more niche worlds that I think we’ll find them playing. This is also a situation helped by a number of companies opening up (much as Ning has done for Social Networks) easy development of bespoke virtual environments.

Of course, this doesn’t mean that brands who’ve invested in Second Life to this date have lost out. They’ve gained vital early experience and many still investing – Vodafone’s “Inside Out” initiative stands out to me here – are learning lessons that will be easily applied in the niche environments to come. Smart organisations such as Omnicom are also preparing themselves for this “avatar age” regardless of whether it occurs on the Linden Grid or not.

So, Second Life – I can’t imagine I’ll be back in the future, nor will many of the brands leaving it. But this doesn’t mean we won’t all be seen wiser and with our specific needs – whether these are interest based on tied perhaps to real world neighbourhoods – more capably catered for in new virtual worlds by 2012.

“Agencies for the digital age?”

So as something of an exercise I find myself thinking about company vision and positioning.

Of course, right now I think I know exactly the type of agency I’d like to be working for. It’d have to be Blue Ant, William Gibson’s fictional “high-speed, low-drag life-form in an advertising ecology of lumbering herbivores.”

Any agency that can be associated with a magazine both influential and non-existent is of course guaranteed to appeal to me (long story…)

But that’s for the future, and to paraphrase Gibson writing elsewhere, if that future’s here then it hasn’t been distributed in my direction yet.

The phrase I keep coming back to is Bob Greenberg’s line for his deeply admirable agency R/GA – “The agency for the digital age.” It’s a line I’d love to appropriate, and in fact I’m toying with exactly that right now.

Why? Because “We’re not an agency, we’re an agency for the digital age” is a line I’m hearing more regularly from mouths that aren’t just R/GA’s and I think that as a rallying call for enhanced definition it should be more widely adopted.

But how to move the term from 21^st century advertising shibboleth to a clear positioning in reality?

Obviously, sitting as a media neutral lead agency at the heart of any communication – digital or not – has got to be part of this. Look at the work of CP+B in the US or at a lot of the work that AKQA does (for Nike in particular) in the UK. Look at the way that a digital agency such as Glue can make it to the shortlist stage for a major “traditional” advertising brief, or the way that traditional offline agencies are rushing into a second digital renaissance.

But then there’s surely more to it than just the development of campaign communications ideas appropriate for this maturing “digital age.” There’s a need for a robust technical development capability. A need for deep understanding the measurement and metrics necessary to drive success. A need for “getting” the nuts and bolts of e-commerce as well as you get the rich media technologies that contribute to immersive brand experiences online.

So, you can’t be quite as small as Blue Ant’s rhetoric suggests (“Relatively tiny in terms of permanent staff, globally distributed, more post-geographic than multinational…”)

More than anything though, “an agency for the digital age” needs to be one that gets back to the earlier less buttoned-down thinking of the likes of Ogilvy and Bernbach. An agency whose role is to solve clients’ problems. And if these solutions, as an output of informed analysis, require the design and development of new products and services rather than just communications then this is what the agency needs to be able to deliver.

The ‘lumbering herbivores’ heading for extinction are those who either can’t see this or who just don’t have the skills to deliver on the promise. 

So – want to join the “agencies for the digital age” party? Go for it – be unashamed about taking up the tag line, as long as it helps you crystallise what you need to do to get there. 

SEO – still vital, even for video

Had some drinks the other day with the guys from Kewego.  

Kewego’s in the white-labelled video business, they’re going great guns in France, Spain and other European markets with video portals for the likes of Lycos and Orange and now they’ve gained an additional 5 million Euros to develop further and break the UK (oh, and to achieve profitability).

 I’m liking the way they talk.

They’ve patently got the tech and their Commercial Director John Gillespie’s got the credibility – he was involved in old-school UK player Easyshop which ended up as Figleaves. He’s also prepared to speak his mind over the Staropramen.  

He’s particularly entertaining on the way that the current rush towards sexy on-site video content from all manner of brands is obscuring what ought to be the real objectives – driving traffic and then monetising it.  Kewego has a serious focus on optimising their page content for search, (vital at a time when Google are ensuring YouTube clips are appearing graphically in their SERPS) but is this what many potential clients are latching onto?  

Oh no. John reckons he’s seeing many content owners and their agencies obsess more about the look of the players and the flash pages they’re embedded in than about making sure that the content pulls in a search audience. And when traffic driving does come up there’s a focus on the ever-more ubiquitous and trendily 2.0 links to the social services such as Digg, Reddit, Furl, Del.icio.us etc.  

If it’s true, then it’s madness. It also reinforces a long-term observation-based fear of mine. That the basics of organic SEO – about as important as it gets for driving traffic from users who are actively looking for your content and services – are unknown to a lot of people in the industry. 

An understanding of the nuts and bolts of SEO is key to any online marketing strategy and – particularly in Europe – you’re going to see far greater returns on traffic through an investment in this than deploying a “Digg this” link against your content. Just because it’s been around for ages and doesn’t have a brightly coloured logo with a permanent “Beta” to attach to it, it doesn’t mean it’s unimportant.  

On Blyk and ad-supported MVNO models

Lots of talk lately about new ad-supported MVNO Blyk.  

In a nutshell, 16-24 year old phone owners will be able to get 217 free texts and 43 minutes of talk if they insert a Blyk SIM and agree to receive 6 SMS/MMS ads a day from brands that they’ve selected themselves.  

The list of brands already includes major players such as L’Oreal and Coca Cola.  

There’s a lot I like about Blyk.  I like the ex-Nokia team they’ve got on board, and I love the permission plus preference (“open marketing”) model that they’re rocking.  I love the warm, fuzzy and consciously amateur way they’re going about a YouTube strategy and I love the Gmail style “invitation” access to the service once it’s been initially seeded.  

But I’m still currently trying to coerce friends and friends of friends, (Facebook finally finds real utility for me…), who work in universities to see if they can’t reach out to their students on my behalf.  

Why? Because it’s easy to talk about how innovative, disruptive, revolutionary etc. this service is, and to respect the thinking that’s gone into ensuring that the executions received are designed for interaction etc. etc., but I’ve been burnt in the past when it comes to second guessing a younger audience. (Sometimes I feel more digital dinosaur than immigrant).   

Questions on my mind:

According to Blyk’s Marko in a session I was in the other week, the messages will come at the same time every day. Score one for ensuring familiarity, but doesn’t this make it even easier to ignore them on a regular basis? I’m unaware of any mechanic that insists on anything beyond receipt to maintain your free calls.  

Then there’s the whole issue of what is – let’s face it – a student audience and their attitude to being bought off by brands. Or does no one read “No Logo” or listen to Bill Hicks anymore? (Quoth the dinosaur). 

And it’s not as if the model’s as new or revolutionary as a lot of media coverage would have you believe.  Virgin Mobile USA’s dubiously named service “Sugar Mama” (why not just go the whole hog and call it ”Cougar,” guys?) has been working a similar mechanic in the states since last year. Anyone hear about that revolutionising the dynamics of either the advertising or mobile industries? Didn’t think so.  

Then there’s Xero (“son of Gizmondo”) who at least seem to have plans in place to ensure that users actually watch the 4 video commercials sent to their phones on a daily basis.  Add to that the talk of MySpace getting into the MVNO market with an ad-subsidised model and the constant mobile mutterings of Google’s Eric Schmidt and there’s a lot more than Blyk going on in the space.   

But still, I’ll hold back on any judgement until (hopefully) those students I’m trying to get hold of can give me a real world picture. I’ll also continue – whenever Blyk comes up in conversation – to make facetious comments about the suitability (or not) of the brand name for a South African roll out.

Best tech at the PICNIC table?

So, in between branding sessions, what impressed at PICNIC?

For sheer wow factor, it was all about the augmented reality demonstrations from Barcelona’s YDreams and London’s Brand Experience Lab.   

But first a definition of “augmented reality” is called for.    

The term itself is nothing new. While you’d think it came from a cyberpunk novel, “augmented reality” was more prosaically coined in 1990 by Boeing engineers developing a prototype training solution.   Essentially, it’s all about overlaying CGI onto what the user is seeing and mapping this through use of motion capture. If you’ve ever seen Sony’s Eye Toy for the PS2 then you’ve seen it in action.   

But where the Eye Toy is often a solitary experience (stand drunk in front of your telly and fight robot ninja monkeys) both YDreams and Brand Experience Lab are making this a shared and – based on the PICNIC reaction – communally euphoric experience.    

It’s better seen than described, so get yourself to YouTube and search the phrase “Human Joysticks.”   What you’ll find is a crowd of cinema-goers during the opening weekend of Spiderman 3 in LA. You’ll see them whoop as only North Americans can while swaying from side to side to control a big screen version of arcade classic Breakout in a branded game developed by MSNBC.   

A variant on this was deployed at the London premiere of “Ratatouille” – sponsored by Volvo, the audience steered their way around a track, with a plan to stack up the scores of different audiences across the country  in a prize-winning competition.   

(Quick digression – Pixar have normally demonstrated a brilliant “does what it says on the tin” naming strategy for their films – viz. “Cars” and “Toy Story.” So why over-reach themselves this time with a title that requires its own pronunciation guide on the posters? Wouldn’t “Rat Chefs” have been closer the mark?)  

Anyway, then get back to YouTube and try a search on ‘YDreams’ + ‘Dove.’ A São Paulo audience similarly whoops and swoons (though in an infinitely more sensual South American fashion) as they burst virtual bubbles in a stunning piece of work delivered through OgilvyOne.   Not only does São Paulo ban toxic outdoor advertising, it gets immersive brand experiences like this. Nice.   

But while I’m all for brand engagement through shared emotional experiences, I’m  unsure just how many and varied the possibilities of this pre-movie tech actually are – so respect to Volvo for getting in there first in the UK. There are obviously opportunities to network different cinemas together and to have one audience play another, but the type of interaction and control is ultimately limited. That said, wait till you experience it – as you inevitably will – and feel the joy.   

And hell, it beats the standard pre-film fodder – I can easily see it becoming part of a pre-film ritual.  But for brands the challenge for the future will be in ensuring effective integration and messaging within the experience – something done better by Dove than by MSNBC.

On brand at PICNIC ‘07

 So, to Amsterdam for PICNIC ’07.   

With the strap line “Uncork your Mind” and heavy sponsorship from the likes of KLM, KPMG, Lost Boys and Heineken (notably unavailable and personally missed in the event’s main bar) PICNIC – now in its second year – bills itself as more a festival than a conference.   

And it very nearly gets there. 

In addition to the main conference sessions and workshops there are also audio-visual events across the city’s main music and arts venues (including De Balie, bringing on unwelcome flashbacks to a particularly messy panel I participated in seven years ago) and a transplanted version of New York’s “Come out and Play” urban games event.     

So yes, they do it well. If there’s one downside (other than the lack of Heineken, though this in part alleviated by the presence of local rival “Brand”) then it’s the issue that all these events face: however stellar the speaker list there’s never enough actively actionable content.    

PICNIC delivered on the high profile speakers but all too often all the high priced ticket money got you was just the showcasing of latest work or the uncritical promotion of latest books, business models or (stand up Richard Hytner, Saatchi’s global #2 dude) rhetorical slices of trendy jargon.   Nevertheless, some of the highlights nearly made up for this. Here are three:  

1. Arriving late and seemingly disoriented to his 15 minute “PICNIC Green moment,” actor – and enthusiast for all things green – Woody Harrelson talks to the topic of endangered redwoods. Or rather “ancient redwoods” – he seems unable to decouple the trees from the adjective and this lends a certain air of comedy. An air maintained by his stand out line: “If only those ancient creatures could talk…”  Class.   

2. Uber-hacker Pablos Holman of Komposite.com demonstrates the weakness of most everyday encryption techniques by performing some live exploits Yes, it’s the expected thing in these sessions, but the modern day phone-phreakery of hacking someone’s voicemail and changing the message is always good value. And this was Cory Doctorow’s answer phone message. Great stuff.  

3. “Cult of the Amateur” author Andrew Keen takes an almost aggressive and confrontational stance against David Weinberger’s evangelical view of the semantic web. Possibly Keen – whose thesis is that blogs deliver damagingly superficial observations of the world – is driven to this aggression by the sight of his audience blogging his words in real time. Or possibly he’s aware that a hard-line stance helps shift units.   

Either way, it’s not everyday you hear the terms “philosopher” and “humanist” hurled as insults…